Wednesday, September 17, 2008

FUNDAMENTAL FOR GBP/USD

I´m posting this fundamentals related to the GBP, I hope that it results useful

Leading shares have closed below the key 5000 level for the first time since May 2005, as the global financial crisis deepened on both sides of the Atlantic.
In the UK, HBOS confirmed it was in emergency talks to be taken over by Lloyds TSB after a severe slump in its shares and growing concern about its ability to meet its funding requirements. With no more details by the time the market closed, investors bailed out of the shares, leaving them 34.9p lower at 147.1p. In a tumultuous day's trading they had traded as low as 88p and as high as 220p. Lloyds was unchanged at 279.75p.
With Libor - the rate at which banks lend to each other - continuing to strengthen, dealers were trying to spot other banks under pressure. Royal Bank of Scotland was the main target for this, closing 19.7p down at 169.4p.
That practice was not confined to London. Shares in US investment bank Morgan Stanley slumped by as much as 41% in early trading, not helped by a report on CNBC television that it would consider giving up its independence. Rival Goldman Sachs had fallen more than 20% by the close in London.
Moves by the authorities to shore up confidence had little effect. Not only is the government involved in the HBOS situation, the Bank of England announced it was extending its special liquidity scheme - which was due to end in October - until January 2009.
In the US, the Securities and Exchange Commission issued new rules to prevent what was labelled abusive short selling, which many believe has exaggerated the current turmoil.
But investors took little notice, and the initial euphoria after the $85bn rescue package for US insurance group AIG was soon forgotten.
By the time London closed, Wall Street had plunged nearly 350 points and the FTSE 100 ended 113.2 points down at 4912.4.
Bank of Ireland added to the gloom, falling 14% to €3.93 after it said it was halving its dividend to boost its capital. HSBC, reportedly one of a number of banks approached about a possible takeover of troubled savings and loan business Washington Mutual, closed 38.75p lower at 801p.
But Barclays was relatively immune to the day's carnage, up 9.75p to 317.75p after its plan to buy various of the Lehman Brothers assets.
With investors seeking safe havens, supermarkets were wanted. Morrison Supermarkets rose 10p to 256.5p, and Tesco was 14.2p better at 372.8p.
Technology group Invensys was up 5.75p at 224.25p after paying $38m in cash for US train controls company Quantum Engineering. Analysts at Evolution Securities welcomed the deal, and in a buy note commented: "Since 2 September, Invensys has underperformed by 17% making it the 10th worst performer in FTSE 100 which, given its £400m cash pile, 11.2% free cash flow yield and substantial and sustainable infrastructure profile appears unwarranted.
"We believe that a key factor in the sudden weakness over the last four trading days is connected with Lehman, the joint broker, which accounted for around 20% of the volume. This has created a great opportunity to buy a cheap stock."
Oil services business Wood Group rose 18p to 360.75p, making it the best performer in the FTSE 100 after Goldman Sachs raised its target price from 490p to 530p.
But miners were weaker as fears of slowing global demand re-emerged. Even a bit of bid speculation - talk of a move on Anglo American from Brazil's Vale - did little to help. Anglo ended 209p lower at £20.49.
Insurer Aviva detailed its exposure to AIG, saying this amounted to £148m at the close of business yesterday. Aviva fell 4.5p to 455.5p.

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